FEBRUARY 2023 - Ottawa Real Estate Market Update
Source: Ottawa Real Estate Board
Members of the Ottawa Real Estate Board (OREB) sold 855 residential properties in February through the Board’s Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) System, compared with 1,411 in February 2022, a decrease of 39%. February’s sales included 633 in the freehold-property class, down 42% from a year ago, and 222 in the condominium-property category, a decrease of 31% from February 2022. The five-year average for total unit sales in February is 1,157.
“We’re going to see declines in transactions and prices when we compare current figures to last February — the height of the pandemic resale market activity,” says Ottawa Real Estate Board’s President Ken Dekker. “On the other hand, with the Bank of Canada holding interest rates steady, prospective buyers have more budget certainty to work with as we head into the spring market.”
By the Numbers – Average Prices*:
“The average price increase for freeholds over January could be an indicator that buyers have normalized to the current interest rates. And perhaps, it’s a glimmer of more activity to come in the months ahead.”
By the Numbers – Inventory & New Listings:
“A decrease in the days on market, paired with fewer new listings entering the market, is good news for sellers,” says Dekker. “However, if that trend continues to impact our supply stock and we don’t get more inventory, our otherwise balanced market could swing back into seller’s territory — but it’s too early to predict.”
“The best advice for sellers and buyers in today’s market is to pay close attention to the comparison and competition insights only a REALTOR® can offer. Ottawa is made up of many micro-markets, and neighbourhood-level data is vital to standing out and closing deals.”
REALTORS® also help with finding rentals and vetting potential tenants. Since the beginning of the year, OREB Members have assisted clients with renting 995 properties compared to 800 last year at this time, an increase of 24%.
* OREB cautions that the average sale price can be useful in establishing trends over time but should not be used as an indicator that specific properties have increased or decreased in value. The calculation of the average sale price is based on the total dollar volume of all properties sold. Price will vary from neighbourhood to neighbourhood.
JANUARY 2023 - Ottawa Real Estate Market Update:
Resale market starts slow as Buyers remain cautious.
Members of the Ottawa Real Estate Board (OREB) sold 606 residential properties in January through the Board’s Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) System, compared with 933 in January 2022, a decrease of 35%. January’s sales included 460 in the freehold-property class, down 30% from a year ago, and 146 in the condominium-property category, a decrease of 47% from January 2022. The five-year average for total unit sales in January is 819.
“January’s marked slow down in unit sales over 2022 indicates potential home buyers are taking their time,” says OREB President Ken Dekker. “While last month saw the culmination of the succession of interest rate hikes announced by the Bank of Canada, affordability remains a factor. They may be waiting for a shift in listing prices. They’re being cautious in uncertain conditions.”
By the Numbers – Average Prices*:
“Despite the decrease in average prices, the market should not be considered on a downward slide,” says Dekker. “A hyper COVID-19 seller’s market is now leveling out to our current balanced market state.”
“On a positive note, in comparison to December’s figures, January’s average price of freehold properties increased by 3%. The average price of condos did fall by 5% compared to December but condo pricing tends to fluctuate more due to the small data set.”
By the Numbers – Inventory & New Listings:
“Ottawa’s inventory and days on market figures are typical for a balanced market and another sign that buyers are no longer racing to put in an offer,” says Dekker. “The increase in new listings and supply is a boon for home buyers, who now have more selection and the ability to put in conditions at a less frantic pace. REALTORS® are an essential resource in finding the right property for the right buyer. On the other side of the transaction, REALTORS® can help sellers with hyper-local insights about how to sell in their neighbourhood at a time when pricing is key.”
More people are turning to REALTORS® for help renting properties — 509 this month compared to 410 in January 2022, an increase of 24%. “Even with the increase in housing stock, the tighter rental market is another indication that affordability is keeping some potential buyers on the sidelines.”
* OREB cautions that the average sale price can be useful in establishing trends over time but should not be used as an indicator that specific properties have increased or decreased in value. The calculation of the average sale price is based on the total dollar volume of all properties sold. Price will vary from neighbourhood to neighbourhood.
DECEMBER 2022 - Ottawa Real Estate Market Update:
Members of the Ottawa Real Estate Board (OREB) sold 601 residential properties in December through the Board’s Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) System, compared with 857 in December 2021, a decrease of 30%. December’s sales included 466 in the residential-property class, down 22% from a year ago, and 135 in the condominium-property category, a decrease of 48% from December 2021. The five-year average for total unit sales in December is 775.
2022 in Review
Residential and condo resales in 2022 totaled 15,288, compared with 20,289 in 2021, decreasing 25%. Total sales volume in 2022 was approximately $10.5B compared to $13B in 2021.
“Even with the normal seasonal slowdown, December’s performance was in stark contrast to the very active resale market that opened 2022,” says Ken Dekker, OREB’s newly installed 2023 President. “As interest rates and inflation both climbed, buyers retreated to the sidelines and began taking a wait and see approach. However, while it’s quieter than the frantic pace we experienced in 2021, it is now a balanced market.”
By the Numbers – Average Prices*:
“Although market activity tapered off in later 2022, there was an immense amount of activity in the spring at high prices,” says Dekker. “This will be an important caveat to consider as we begin comparing 2023 numbers to the previous year.”
By the Numbers – Inventory & New Listings:
“The leading economic force behind Ottawa’s rapid appreciation in the past five years is chronic supply insufficiency,” says Dekker. “It intensified during the pandemic as prospective purchasers capitalized on incredibly low interest rates. Today’s higher rates are slowing down building projects, which exacerbates the low supply issue.”
2023 Lookahead
“Since Ottawa is made up of hyper-local markets, it is a difficult ecosystem to forecast,” says Dekker. “Plus, there are a multitude of factors influencing a changing economic environment these days that will dictate how much activity the resale market will see in 2023. REALTORS® have access to expert insights and industry resources that can help buyers and sellers navigate the complexities.”
REALTORS® also help with finding rentals and vetting potential tenants. OREB Members have assisted clients with renting 6,105 properties this past year compared to 4,813 in 2021.
* OREB cautions that the average sale price can be useful in establishing trends over time but should not be used as an indicator that specific properties have increased or decreased in value. The calculation of the average sale price is based on the total dollar volume of all properties sold. Price will vary from neighbourhood to neighbourhood.
NOVEMBER 2022 - Ottawa Real Estate Market Update:
Members of the Ottawa Real Estate Board (OREB) sold 846 residential properties in November through the Board’s Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) System, compared with 1,456 in November 2021, a decrease of 42%. November’s sales included 658 in the residential-property class, down 39% from a year ago, and 188 in the condominium-property category, a decrease of 50% from November 2021. The five-year average for total unit sales in November is 1,270.
“November’s sales were expectedly low given the typical slowdown this time of year but they also reflect today's economic conditions," says Penny Torontow, OREB's 2022 President. “This is not isolated to our local market. Globally, we’re still adjusting to the post-pandemic world and that affects demand, pricing, interest rates, cost of living, supply chain disruptions and more. As a result, those who can, are waiting and watching.”
By the Numbers – Average Prices*:
“What’s concerning about the current market is the impact on first-time homebuyers,” says Torontow. “The marked decrease in condo sales, for example, signals that even entry-level properties are being affected. Fluctuating markets, paired with the stress test, are keeping first-time buyers on the sidelines in a tight rental market—with MLS® rentals increasing 27% this year over last.”
By the Numbers – Inventory & New Listings:
“With nearly four months of inventory and an average 30 days on market, Ottawa now has a balanced resale market, slightly tipping toward the buyers,” says Torontow. “Sellers are well-advised to work with a REALTOR® who has hyper-local knowledge about specific neighbourhoods, appropriate price points and ideal timing. Prices are adjusting but real estate is a long-term investment. It’s the same reason I tell buyers to marry the house and date the rate.”
OCTOBER 2022 Ottawa Real Estate Market Update:
Members of the Ottawa Real Estate Board sold 987 residential properties in October through the Board’s Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) System, compared with 1,670 in October 2021, a decrease of 41%. October’s sales included 758 in the residential-property class, down 40% from a year ago, and 229 in the condominium-property category, a decrease of 44% from October 2021. The five-year average for total unit sales in October is 1,554.
“After the volatility of the past two pandemic years, which was unsustainable, the market is correcting and adjusting,” says Penny Torontow, Ottawa Real Estate Board President. “The slowdown is compounded by Bank of Canada interest rate increases, which further exacerbates buyer hesitancy and weakens people’s purchasing power—especially first-time homebuyers.”
“Demand is still high, and with increasing inventory available, Buyers have more choices and time to shop for their new home. However, the ongoing speculation about where prices and interest rates are headed shakes consumer confidence and has made some prospective Buyers take a wait-and-see approach.”
“Sellers may be understandably concerned about market fluctuations, which have been more drastic lately,” she adds. “As with any major investment, a longer-term perspective is important. The significant year-over-year gains of the last two years were not sustainable. If you have owned your property for any length of time, your equity has increased significantly and will buffer price corrections. If you buy and sell in the same market, it is all relative.”
By the Numbers – Inventory & New Listings:
“Buyers and Sellers need to carefully analyze their own unique circumstances. No one can predict with absolute certainty what will happen next year, but in the highly employed and stable Ottawa market, real estate has been and continues to be a good investment over time,” says Torontow. “They don’t have a crystal ball, but mortgage brokers and REALTORS® have the education, expertise—and most importantly, the data—to help people make an informed decision for their specific situation.”
By the Numbers – Average Prices*:
REALTORS® also help with finding rentals and vetting potential tenants. Since the beginning of the year, OREB Members have assisted clients with renting 5,186 properties compared to 4,012 last year at this time.
* OREB cautions that the average sale price can be useful in establishing trends over time but should not be used as an indicator that specific properties have increased or decreased in value. The calculation of the average sale price is based on the total dollar volume of all properties sold. Price will vary from neighbourhood to neighbourhood.
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